October 9, 2024
This week the World Media Group brought together a panel of world-leading journalists for our Smart Briefing Elections Special in London. World Media Group CEO, Jamie Credland chaired the panel, with BBC News’s Christian Fraser, CNN’s Max Foster and TIME’s Yasmeen Serhan discussing the themes and developments shaping the political landscape in a year when more than 70 countries are holding an election.
The conversation spanned topics ranging from the rise of the far-right in Europe to the ongoing political tensions in the U.S., examining how economic factors, geopolitics and misinformation influence the voting process.
The rise of the far-right in Europe
One of the most striking trends noted by the panel was the growing strength of far-right political movements across Europe. CNN’s Max Foster pointed out that this rise is largely driven by discontent over economic issues, particularly the cost of living crisis. In France, Foster witnessed “A very organised far right, getting a huge amount of votes, and a very disorganised left arguing amongst each other,” typifying what is happening more broadly elsewhere. Foster believes the far-right parties have succeeded in offering “clearer answers” to economic concerns that resonate with voters. In contrast, left-leaning parties have appeared disorganised and fragmented, allowing the far-right to capture a larger share of the electorate.
TIME’s Yasmeen Serhan noted similar trends in countries such as Austria, where pro-Russia sentiment has gained traction. However, although she acknowledged the rising far-right as a trend, Serhan pointed out that there were also examples that contradicted it. In the Indian election this year,for example, “Prime Minister Narendra Modi predictably won a third term, but unpredictably, did not secure the outright majority he had enjoyed prior,” Serhan said. “That seemed to be an indication that his very nationalist view was not as popular.”
That said, the panel agreed that the rise of far-right parties in Europe does have implications for global politics, especially concerning the balance of power between Western democracies versus authoritarian regimes including Russia, China and Iran. As Europe’s political centre shifts rightward, the geopolitical ramifications may see traditional alliances like NATO facing new challenges.
The challenges facing Labour in the UK
The conversation shifted to the United Kingdom and the Labour Party’s recent rise to power. BBC News’s Christian Fraser explained Labour has taken on “a tricky inheritance”. The challenges the party faces haven’t been helped by its infighting within the first few months: “The internal rows over cuts to winter fuel allowances, the caps on child benefits…governing is much harder than being in opposition,” he said.
The problem, Fraser pointed out, is the government’s struggling to navigate its inherited financial crisis while trying to formulate a growth strategy that satisfies both business interests and the party’s union base, and, at the same time balance economic growth with environmental sustainability. “What does the industrial strategy going forward look like if you’re stripping carbon out of our electricity production?” Fraser asked “Where are those new jobs, particularly in Labour constituencies and in Union strongholds?”
U.S. Elections: The Battle for Voter Turnout
Turning to the upcoming U.S. elections, the panellists noted that, much like in Europe, economic concerns are likely to be a decisive factor in shaping voter behaviour. Foster’s view is that “Harris is doing well on the right to choose; Trump is ahead on the economy. And when it comes to voting, people will often be thinking about the economy. Groceries are a big talking point, so never write off Donald Trump.”
The panel agreed that voter turnout could be a huge issue. Both parties will need to motivate their bases to turn out in large numbers if they are to secure victory in what is expected to be a close race.
Fraser thinks this is particularly true for Kamala Harris. While he feels Harris has made significant strides in closing the gap with Trump on economic issues, her real test will be whether she can mobilise key voter demographics. “Can she turn out the African American vote in Philadelphia? Can she squeeze more out of the suburbs? Can she get some of the working-class vote that Joe Biden got in 2020 in key states like Pennsylvania?” he asked.
The significance of the VP debate
With the vice-presidential debate in the news this week, the panel discussed the potential impact of Harris’s running mate, Tim Walz, compared with Trump’s choice, JD Vance. Fraser said, “Vance was chosen because Joe Biden was on the ticket, and is a much younger entity, quite inexperienced politically.” Although Vance has done a lot of media interviews, Fraser felt his inexperience showed with his comments about “lonely cat ladies and Haitian migrants’ cats and dogs,” and he may not be as effective as Trump had hoped. Conversely, Fraser thinks Walz’s background as a Midwestern teacher and former veteran could help bridge the gender gap and appeal to the white working-class male voters that the democrats have struggled to win over in recent years.
Serhan said it was rare to see this much scrutiny of vice-presidential candidates.“I think part of the reason for that is because this is such a close race, because the players changed so quickly, and suddenly we’re looking at these people as a team,” she said. The goal from the debate was for “each man to make the other seem weird and unlikable.” Serhan agreed that after Biden stepped down, “there was a bit of buyer’s remorse,” with Vance. “Suddenly there was this question of, is JD Vance as effective?” Still, doubts remain about whether Walz has the charisma and appeal to attract the undecided voters needed to swing the election.
The Role of Misinformation and Media
The growing influence of misinformation and disinformation was a recurring theme throughout the discussion, particularly in the context of social media platforms like TikTok. Foster noted that TikTok has become a primary source of news for many young people and, while it presents challenges for traditional news organisations, “it’s unavoidable” for them to have a presence. “It’s a crucial marketing tool because that’s where people find out about news,” he says.
One of the issues is that many TikTok creators lack the fact-checking infrastructure of established news outlets, yet they often claim to provide news that the mainstream media is not covering, creating a dangerous cycle of misinformation. Foster urged marketers to be aware of the difference between journalists and commercial influencers who “have no news gathering network’ and yet are often paid by brands that choose to be associated with them.
Fraser expressed concerns about the rapid advances in AI-generated content, particularly the difficulty in distinguishing between real and fake information. “AI creators are becoming so good, that for me, this is the last year that you will be able to tell what is a fake AI image and what isn’t,” he said.
As it becomes increasingly difficult to tell whether an image, video or even a news story is genuine, newsrooms and media organisations face significant challenges. “It’s not just about AI and its impact on the spread of misinformation and disinformation,” Serhan said, “but that it’s going to prompt people to no longer believe what they’re seeing.”
What this means is that journalists must not only report the truth but may also find themselves having to prove the authenticity of their reporting, as misinformation and disinformation becomes more prevalent.
This issue is particularly pressing as the 2024 U.S. elections approach, with bad actors using AI to create misleading content designed to influence voters. The panellists underscored the importance of media literacy and the need for voters to be discerning about their news sources.
The Global Impact of the U.S. Election
The discussion concluded with a reflection on the global significance of the U.S. election. Serhan noted that while U.S. elections are primarily a domestic affair, their outcomes have far-reaching implications for global politics. “I think the leaders who would be most thrilled by a Trump re-election would be the strong-man types – the Viktor Orbáns and Vladimir Putins of the world,” she said.
As well as being likely to embolden authoritarian leaders, Serhan said a Trump win would mean “an isolationist tone in the Republican party,” impacting foreign affairs, “perhaps with an exception to Israel.” A Harris presidency, on the other hand, would signal a continuation of U.S. support for liberal democracies and international alliances such as NATO.
The stakes are high, and, as our panellists agreed, the outcome of the 2024 U.S. election will shape not only the future of the United States but also the broader global order. As we race towards the big day on November 5th, our trusted WMG member brands will be delivering up-to-the-minute, fact-checked news, in real-time, to help audiences make sense of the latest information from Washington as the situation develops.