A fragmented world is a poorer world. This campaign needed to engage Swift’s target audience—financial institutions, central banks, policymakers, and corporates—to help them understand the economic cost of allowing financial fragmentation to worsen.

To ensure this audience understood the full scale of this complex issue, we needed a research approach that spoke the same language as the audience. Thus, an economic impact study was identified as the most appropriate way to engage the target audience.

To assess the scale of impact of this global fragmentation, Economist Impact conducted an econometric analysis of the impact restrictions on financial flows could have on key global and regional economic outcomes such as GDP. By using the economic world’s most trusted global trade model, the Global Trade Analysis Project model (GTAP), we analysed a variety of plausible future quantitative scenarios that aimed to:

1) Understand the economic impact mechanisms for key stakeholders in financial and non-financial sectors
2) Estimate the GDP losses by region/income group
3) Map how key stakeholders in the financial services industry could react under different geopolitical scenarios
4) Identify strategies that stakeholders are using to mitigate and/or adapt to financial fragmentation

Critically, we examined both positive and negative scenarios for the audience to consider. The negative scenarios demonstrated the economic damage that financial fragmentation would entail—a global GDP loss of US$6.5 trillion and up to 280 million jobs that may not be created by 2030. This was a call to action for this community, demonstrating that doing nothing about financial fragmentation is extremely damaging. Alternatively, we explored the potential for mitigation strategies to lessen this impact. Ultimately, we needed the audience to be engaged and informed, but most importantly, motivated to act.

Economist Impact, with support from Swift, developed the “Growth at a Crossroads, measuring the cost of financial fragmentation” an in-depth research program that unpacks the driving forces of financial fragmentation, explores possible scenarios, and reveals the staggering economic costs at stake.

Research Insights:

Through innovative and complex modelling using the GTAP model, Economist Impact was able to build short-to-medium-term scenarios that provided valuable insights to the target audience. The GTAP model is a widely used economic model that analyses the global economy, particularly focusing on trade, production, and consumption. It’s a multiregional, multisectoral model that examines the impact of policies, trade barriers, and other economic events on international trade, production, and jobs.

In order to deliver content in formats that appealed to the target audience, findings were brought to life via an executive summary, an interactive data story, and a LinkedIn live event.

Executive Summary:

A robust study was conducted to attempt to predict how financial fragmentation could play out to 2030 and quantifies the effect it could have on global and national GDP and employment. The analysis is grounded in a robust scenario-building exercise that examines probable drivers of fragmentation in the short- to medium-term and maps out three potential futures. These qualitative scenarios are integrated into a comprehensive modelling and quantitative analysis, further enriched by in-depth interviews with experts in global and regional finance.

Interactive Data Story:

An interactive data story told in a compelling scrollytell format enabled users to understand the 5 key takeaways from the research and economic modeling in an easy-to-understand, digestible way.

LinkedIn Live event:

The programme was brought to life at a LinkedIn Live event hosted by Swift, where John Ferguson, Head of New Globalisation, Policy and Insights at Economist Impact, presented key findings from the research.

Designated Digital Hub:

A bespoke, interactive hub designed to allow users to gain insights how they prefer: https://impact.economist.com/projects/cost-of-fragmentation/

As part of the cost of financial fragmentation program, Economist Impact developed a vehicle for housing and collating all content, The cost of financial fragmentation campaign. A wider campaign was developed to disseminate content on a wider global scale. The campaign aims to start a global conversation about what could be lost due to fragmentation. The campaign and content focuses on education, engagement and inspiration for business and policy leaders, by contextualising the important issue of financial fragmentation.

With The Economist reaching C-suite and finance services and investment decision makers, a robust amplification plan was developed across The Economist ecosystem.

Promotion: PR at launch, targeted media across The Economist’s newsletter, digital, print. mobile, and social channels to drive awareness of the programme among global business decisions makers and policy makers in key markets. Promoted during Swift’s LinkedIn Live webinar.

Media Amplification:

• Display: takeovers, audience targeted and contextually targeted ads, mobile app ads
• Newsletter: in The Economist This Week newsletter
• Print: print insertions in The Economist
• Social: LinkedIn X Sponsored Updates, Facebook of X boosted posts, Twitter X Client-sponsored TweetsEvents:
• LinkedIn Live webinar hosted by Swift featuring John Ferguson from Economist Impact

Making the case that a fragmented world is a poorer world:

• Research findings from using the economic world’s most trusted global trade model, GTAP, and analysing a variety of plausible future quantitative scenarios
• Detailed insights from across an executive summary and an interactive data story
• Visitors to the hub were from high income households
  Notable PR mentions in reputable trade and capital markets titles

Global Reach: Extensive media campaign across The Economist platforms engaged the world’s influential audiences including business leaders and policy makers. Users were engaged with the content with time spent significantly outperforming industry benchmarks.

Swift’s print advertisement in the US edition of The Economist, had an uplift of a more favourable opinion about the advertiser, for visiting a social media site/app, for recommending the product or service, for visiting their website and watching a video on website, social media site or app, compared to the category norms. This demonstrates the power of print placements within a trusted publication.

The report was also used extensively by Swift’s internal stakeholders to initiate conversations with policymakers across NAM and the global South at key engagements such as Davos and more bilateral meetings.

“Understanding the impact of financial fragmentation on countries,economies, businesses, and people’s lives is central to our role as a global public good at the heart of the financial ecosystem.” Rosemary Stone, Chief Corporate Officer, Swift

The Cost of Fragmentation Report

Executive Summary – Growth at a crossroads

Data Story – Growth at a crossroads